The problem you'll have is there's no real easy to calibrate a temp probe without something that's certified to a standard, in this case NIST. Any other thermometer is going to be an approximation. It's possible it's bad but that wouldn't be my first guess.
As an example, I've got a Coral View electronic thermostat sitting right next to my Neptune temp probe. Some days they're within 1/10 degree of each other. Other days they're 1.5 apart. Go figure.
Maybe ask around your local reef club or LFS and see if anyone has a NIST thermometer they would loan you for a day. Then you would know for sure. Of course if the temp readings continue to drift higher and higher, then it probably is the probe!