Figuring out the baffle height is less for overflow capacity and more for what is in your sump. For example, if you have the skimmer in the sump, you want the baffles to provide the recommended water depth for that skimmer. In general, my baffles are 8" high but my sump is also about 40 gallons. Obviously don't make the baffles much higher than needed because it does reduce the overfill capacity of the sump.
Making sure you have enough overfill capacity in the sump is a different problem that is a bit trickier to solve. When your return pump is on, you will see that the water level rises above the bottom of the overflow teeth. You could measure how much it goes above, measure the dimensions of the tank and calculate that water volume.
You can use that as a starting point and make sure your sump can handle AT LEAST that much. The problem with the approach is that the height above the teeth will vary based on your return pump. Stronger returns will cause that height to increase and more overfill capacity is needed in the sump. Also, if you add a fuge, frag tank or anything else that shares the sump, you'll need to include that water as well.
Generally I'd say get the biggest sump you can manage as it can only help and not hurt.
I'd like to see what others say on this as I would love a better way to figure this out- especially for people that don't have a running tank yet and can't measure the height of water in the tank.