I'm very interested in the Gooseberry Neck data, especially the times of year sample trawls were done, numbers of animals collected, etc. Do you have any cites? I personally have seen live seahorses floating in circular currents in Barnegat Bay in December, curled up in a semi- suspended state, in about 30 feet of water, with temps around 45F. Very few, though. The key would be sampling trawls, of course. Baymen trawl for crabs and clams in winter, and for grass shrimp bait in early spring. They tell me they almost never see seahorses. Certainly, any overwintering would depend on appropriate currents, since the seagrasses disappear and the seahorses locomotive ability is extremely limited. Obviouly, they cannot migrate on their own. Any suspended cold water survival would depend entirely on water currents.
I agree that there are distinct genetic populations, probably adapted for regional conditions. I very much doubt that any populations feed and reproduce in the cold depths of the north Atlantic. There is also the issue of thermoclines. Even now, with inshore temps in the mid 70s here in NJ, its 20+ degrees colder 10 or 15 meters down. I think there is a lot that's unknown, and I realize that I'm only an interested amateur. Nevertheless, there are large die-offs of seahorses in late fall in the mid-Atlantic. I've seen them. I am also pretty sure that witout the Gulf Stream (which extends past Maine and Nova Scotia and affects their weather) there would be very few seahorses in waters that drop to freezing levels for several months each year. The only places I've observed year round populations of active seahorses in significant numbers have been the grass flats of the Bahamas, Florida, etc. Most of these are H. erectus. Species like Reidi don't become common until you go further south, well into the Caribbean. Again, I'm just an amatuer naturalist, and don't pretend to know a great deal. From what I've read, though, neither does anyone else, and there seem to be lots of experts who have very limited field experience. I have had the experience of seeing, scuba diving off the NJ coast in mid-summer, what semed like acres of small seahorses, tails curled, floating just below the surface 30 or 40 miles offshore, in water bluer and warmer than the surrounding ocean. Maybe they came from some mysterious deepwater source, or maybe they came from the Gulf Stream. I suspect the latter possibility.