Economy, Foreclosures & lack of jobs.

[wizsmaster]

I know we talked about this the other day in the Countryside thread ... and some didn't want to believe just how bad the bottom has fallen out of our area here ....

Fort Myers / Cape Coral is the LEADING Foreclosure capitol of the USA in the month of July.

LEE COUNTY: The Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro area had the highest foreclosure rate in the country last month, with one in every 64 households receiving a foreclosure filing. That's more than seven times the national average, according to RealtyTrac, a California company that monitors foreclosure activity.

Lee County, which also topped the state in foreclosure rates, had 5,310 properties in some stage of foreclosure, up 42 percent from 3,749 actions in June, and a 183 percent increase from July 2007 when there were 696 filings.

Charlotte County had the fourth-highest foreclosure rate in Florida with one in 117 properties in a foreclosure action. A total of 819 foreclosure actions were reported last month, compared with 515 in June and 123 in July of 2007.

On a positive note, the number of foreclosure actions in Collier County last month declined to 921 from 1,008 in June, a 9 percent drop. Collier’s foreclosure rate in July was 15th in the state.

Florida had the second-highest number of foreclosure filings in the country with 45,884. California had the most with 72,285.

To read the RealtyTrac summary reports, visit (www.realtytrac.com).

Article Link:
http://www.nbc-2.com/articles/readarticle.asp?articleid=21032&z=3


The last 2 job 'fairs' that target has held before they opened the 2 stores drew around, possibly more than 1,000 people to each event ... :eek2: :eek1:

 

[Huy]

I follow the market very closely.
What we are experiencing is only the begining of a blood bath.
Unfortunately 2009 will not be any better. As the ARMs are about to be reset, many prime borrowers will also be affected. We will then see the commercial Real Estate taking a dive. Many businesses are hurt and I hope that some of our favorite LFS will survive this storm.

 

[wizsmaster]

Huy,

Yes, I fully agree with you. My family has been in the mortgage & real estate business for about a decade now ... Father is a Mortgage & Real Estate Broker. The commercial in our area has already dropped, and is starting to get into a steep slippery slope ...
Our office is set to move in the next 2 months due to expiration of our lease ... We just renegotiated the future lease for $10 /sqft + a (low) set triple net. 3 months ago when we originally signed the lease it was at around $13 /sqft, and we're currently paying $20 or $22 /sqft.

I just got a call back from a com broker that I had been working with earlier in the year about a retail unit ... he wanted $26 + close to $10 for triple net .... 6 months ago ... he is still empty, and offered me $20 +++ & free rent till the end + $60K buildout. .... unf. i had to tell him that he should've come to his senses when we first talked.

 

[Thrashie]

I have a friend who lives down there in Cape Coral.... 2/3 of his neighborhood has been prety much abandoned due to all the forclosures.....all those for sale sign's etc....it's a sad sight....some really nice houses....

 

[jdhuyvetter]

Marco, Marco, Marco. You have neglected to tell our friends from the north one very important point. Lee County set records in spec home construction. How many of these homes actually have people living in them? Unfortunately, the media sensationalizes the foreclosure rate. I agree that it is bad. I further agree that the commercial market will slide some more, but the "blood bath" has already begun. Home prices in Lee County are almost artificially low. I would be willing to bet that greater than 50% of the foreclosures are empty houses that have never been lived in. I would love to see that statistic, I bet it is around 65% to 70%.

I know of one batch of homes that was sold in foreclosure. Eight homes, only one had ever been lived in. All from the same builder. I know this, because I am doing work for the lawyer. Don't even get me started on the sloppy construction.!!!!!!!!

Just a humble opinion tired of all the nay sayers!!!!!

 

[mflamb]

Let me see...I can afford a $300,000 house on my current income, but surely I'll get some raises in the future....the mortgage company will give me $600,000 on a "sweet" ARM....why not buy a big house...I deserve it...surely I'll be making more money before the ARM goes through the roof...

 

[guntercb]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13156106#post13156106 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by Huy
I follow the market very closely.
What we are experiencing is only the begining of a blood bath.
Unfortunately 2009 will not be any better. As the ARMs are about to be reset, many prime borrowers will also be affected. We will then see the commercial Real Estate taking a dive. Many businesses are hurt and I hope that some of our favorite LFS will survive this storm.

Huy,

I agree completely. I just hope banks like Wachovia can weather the mortgage crisis. I think property is going to continue to drop in '09, but if large banks fail it could be very ugly.

Cheers,
Chris

 

[wizsmaster]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13156610#post13156610 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by jdhuyvetter
Marco, Marco, Marco. You have neglected to tell our friends from the north one very important point. Lee County set records in spec home construction. How many of these homes actually have people living in them? Unfortunately, the media sensationalizes the foreclosure rate. I agree that it is bad. I further agree that the commercial market will slide some more, but the "blood bath" has already begun. Home prices in Lee County are almost artificially low. I would be willing to bet that greater than 50% of the foreclosures are empty houses that have never been lived in. I would love to see that statistic, I bet it is around 65% to 70%.

I know of one batch of homes that was sold in foreclosure. Eight homes, only one had ever been lived in. All from the same builder. I know this, because I am doing work for the lawyer. Don't even get me started on the sloppy construction.!!!!!!!!

Just a humble opinion tired of all the nay sayers!!!!!

Absolutely ... Lee County was one of the heaviest in the 'boom' .... No doubt about it. Many of these foreclosures are new construction ... but realistically many of them are lived in.

Either way .. these foreclosures are hurting everyone. They hurt your property values.

The appraisers are NOT supposed to use short sales, bank owned, or foreclosures as comps, but most do anyway to please the banks & keep the deals coming in ... thats a fact!
Therefor the $350,000 foreclosed property on your million $ + street just dropped your homes value as well. Catch 22 ... it's an evil cycle that will be hard to break ... same with the lenders. The banks don't lend out .. but how do they expect the inventory to dry out if only 10% of the buyers are liquid enough to pay cash?


Oh Jeff .. go on leepa ... they released the 2008 tax roll ... my house values dropped by $60K, and my old one in Parker lakes by $36K

 

[jdhuyvetter]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13156637#post13156637 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by mflamb
Let me see...I can afford a $300,000 house on my current income, but surely I'll get some raises in the future....the mortgage company will give me $600,000 on a "sweet" ARM....why not buy a big house...I deserve it...surely I'll be making more money before the ARM goes through the roof... [/QUOTE

So.......in this hypothetical scenario.......when you default on the loan, is it your fault for overextending yourself? Is it the banks fault for extending a loan they shouldn't have?

Obviously, it is John Q Taxpayers fault, so let's use tax money to bail everybody out.

 

[wizsmaster]

BTW .. i've watched 4 houses get cleared out in the neighborhood over the past 3 days ... 1 of them was a rental that the landlord didn't make payments on. cashed the rental income.

 

[mflamb]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13157047#post13157047 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by wizsmaster
Either way .. these foreclosures are hurting everyone. They hurt your property values.

I'm ok with property values coming down. I plan to die here. If the value stays down, my taxes will no go through the roof, and I can afford to stay here.

 

[jdhuyvetter]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13157047#post13157047 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by wizsmaster
Absolutely ... Lee County was one of the heaviest in the 'boom' .... No doubt about it. Many of these foreclosures are new construction ... but realistically many of them are lived in.

Either way .. these foreclosures are hurting everyone. They hurt your property values.

The appraisers are NOT supposed to use short sales, bank owned, or foreclosures as comps, but most do anyway to please the banks & keep the deals coming in ... thats a fact!
Therefor the $350,000 foreclosed property on your million $ + street just dropped your homes value as well. Catch 22 ... it's an evil cycle that will be hard to break ... same with the lenders. The banks don't lend out .. but how do they expect the inventory to dry out if only 10% of the buyers are liquid enough to pay cash?

Oh, I know. I'm not thrilled about the loss of value of my home, but I am happy the taxes will be lower. I wholeheartedly agree times are tough and might get worse. I'm just tired of the media sensation. Look at the business section in yesterday's news press. Headline talks about a "Global Recession"......at the very bottom of the page in fine print, they are discussing how the trade deficit is dropping, global exports of farm equipment and heavy equipment have gone up so much that the economists are having to revise the GDP for May and June upwards (from 1 to 3%). So, if our GDP is up (again) how are we at the forefront of a global recession that has been going on for 8-10 months. Besides, a vacant property I have been looking at for a while just dropped from 40K assessed to 26K assessed. This is still 10K more than the guy paid for it 3 years ago and actually right about where it should have been all along. Now if I can just find that bank to give me a $600,000 ARM.....................


Oh Jeff .. go on leepa ... they released the 2008 tax roll ... my house values dropped by $60K, and my old one in Parker lakes by $36K

 

[Huy]

Our market is very volatile right now. The only way to survive and perhaps even be ahead of the game is to live dirt poor and be extra nice to people for the next 3 years. Cut back and live below our means. Apply the Late factor.

 

[Steven M]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13156637#post13156637 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by mflamb
Let me see...I can afford a $300,000 house on my current income, but surely I'll get some raises in the future....the mortgage company will give me $600,000 on a "sweet" ARM....why not buy a big house...I deserve it...surely I'll be making more money before the ARM goes through the roof...

Two people I work with got ARM's, one lost there house, the other is just hanging on.

 

[jdhuyvetter]

OOPS, somehow I managed to post my reply as a quote from wisz. Above post are my words not his

 

[wizsmaster]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13157094#post13157094 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by mflamb
I'm ok with property values coming down. I plan to die here. If the value stays down, my taxes will no go through the roof, and I can afford to stay here.

Oh .. you keep on opening those can'o'worms. Stop it! lol

As far as I've heard .... For us down here, the PA/TC will be raising the Millage rates to make up for the lost tax revenue by declining property values ... so ... in other words:

Last annum your property was valued at $300,000 .. and your taxes were $4,500
This year ... your property is valued at $220,000 .... and your taxes will be $4,500

Oh .. and don't forget about the HO insurance ... all state? I believe in Lee County they requested a 87% increase ... 47% is state wide, with exceptions to certain coastal areas where it could vary - just not lower.

 

[jdhuyvetter]

OK, maybe I don't understand the ARM mortgage. Adjustable Rate Mortgage, ARM, correct? If the interest rates are currently very low, how can the loan payment go up that much? Also, don't they explain that when you sign on the dotted line? They did for me, and I passed.

 

[jdhuyvetter]

Hey Marco, good thing we don't live in the Cape. I have a feeling the City Council over there is about to shoot themselves in both feet!!!!

 

[wizsmaster]

What is with the cape? other than that it is the cape...

You know .. it's starting to get really unsightly driving through the neighborhoods ... I'm almost willing to bet it's prettier driving through commercial areas these days that through some residentials .... at least in commercials the units aren't boarded up with plywood, and the glass/weeds 1-2' tall.

I've been driving with a block & pen around ... I make a few calls every week to code enforcement .... of course they cannot do anything until 50% or more of the property is covered with 16" or taller grass/weeds ... and then it will take nearly 6 weeks to a month for them to mow it if the owner doesn't.

 

[jdhuyvetter]

Yeah, I see some of that here too. I just got back from walking the dog. There are 4 houses on my "route". All have the same problem. One they stopped construction on, one has been never been lived in and was "red tagged" the other two are neighbors that moved out. Although someone just moved into one last weekend, so hopefully that will help.