I'm not sure how much water I need to move. I've read at least 5x - 7x.
We have roughly the same amount of water.
Are you saying the M1 would work fine on your tank because of how much you have to tune back the L1?
The 5-7x is usually a rule of thumb for the amount of flow RELATIVE TO THE VOLUME OF YOUR SUMP. Perhaps better said, the flowrate through your sump should be just enough to feed your skimmer, reactors, UV sterilizer, etc. That is, any equipment that you house in your sump. Usually the recommended flow rate for your skimmer is what you should target. Trying to push 5-7x the volume of your tank through the sump leads to a very noisy sump, which most people don't like.
It's generally not a good idea to try to use your return pump for the circulation needs of your tank because it just sends too much water through your sump, again, leading to noise and reduced efficiency of your skimmer. Besides, most reef tanks need 10x turnover and trying to pump 2700gph through your 40 gallon sump would be a nightmare. You'd have water splashing all over the place.
I had 10x circulation in my tank (it's temporarily shut down while I move into a new house) and frankly I don't think it was enough. I'm thinking of adding a fourth MP40 to my 250g tank, and the only reason I don't is funds. Who knows, maybe I'll even make it a MP60. Unfortunately, I think I'm going to buy an automatic water changer before I spring for the extra powerhead.
In short, don't rely on your return pump for your circulation. Use the Vortech's/in-tank powerheads/closed loop pump for your circulation. That's what I and most people do.
So total up the recommended flow rates for each piece of equipment in your sump, adding flowrates for any equipment that you don't have yet, but might get in the future (e.g., calcium reactor, kalkwasser reactor), and size your return pump for that flowrate. And don't forget to derate the pump based on the head pressure of your system. It's the derated number that you need to match to your equipment flowrate. Then buy a pump just slightly larger so you can handle future expansion that you didn't think of and so the pump isn't straining all the time.