Another sad article on our ocean's health...

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<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=12921486#post12921486 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by greenbean36191
Eh, it's far from the most accurate or complete. I think it was about two years ago they published data about disputes between their satellites and the instrumental record. The result? They discovered an error in the way the satellite was measuring things. Last year he had another. It only narrowed things down to the tropics, not the globe (i.e., not complete). By the time it was published the satellite readings had already been adjusted again because they discovered another measurement error. These data also center on the upper atmosphere, not down here.

Still there is some disagreement between the satellite measurements and what is expected, but the difference is within the margins of error and is shrinking with every revision of the UAH data.

On the other hand we have thermometer measurements people have been taking continuously at thousands of stations and from thousands of ships around the world for 200 years. That's pretty complete and unless all of their thermometers are reading incorrectly in the same ways, it's pretty accurate.


The average temp from 1961-1990. I'm not sure what the value is.


....or because it wasn't tested against past data. It fails that test. It also hasn't had any success so far with recent trends. Why do those damn facts always have to get in the way of conspiracy theories?


Because there is no way to account for the magnitude of change within the recent past without accounting for human forcings. You can add up orbital changes, sun spots, changes in volcanism, clouds, and every other known natural cycle. and the line matches up with the temperature up until about the middle of the last century. Then when you add up the effects of land use change, use of fossil fuels, aerosols, etc. that humans have altered, things suddenly come back into line.

Again, please provide some links to reputable sources. :)
 
The Hadley Data gets called into question for "revisions" and inaccuracies all the time: here's one

and another

I fully believe that the Hadley Centre has ulterior motives (ie to promote global warming) and that they will do whatever they have to in order to meet those motives. UAH is tied to no activist groups (because those of us on the global-warming-is-natural side of the argument don't believe in activist groups) so I trust their data.
 
<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=12919703#post12919703 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by greenbean36191
There's no need to gloss over the historical record. The instrumental record is actually about 200 years long. Beyond that we have a few hundred proxy records that overlap with the instrumental records and go on to about 5,000 years. Many go on for several thousand years more. A handful go beyond 250,000 years and one goes on almost 750,000. The closer and closer you get to modern times the more and more overlap you get between records. Given that modern humans are about 250,000 years old, have been civilized for about 8,000 and have have been using large amounts of fossil fuels for about 200, the record we have is pretty significant. The processes driving the climate in the recent past are not the same as the ones 4.5 billion years ago. The surface isn't molten, we have a thick atmosphere, we aren't being bombarded by asteroids, we have large water oceans, and we have aerobic organisms. There is no reason to study what was going on a few billion years ago and it really doesn't contribute to our understanding of how we've changed things.

So you're arguing that the temperature readings collected BEFORE there were even thermometers (or thermoscopes as they were first called) are valid and deserve consideration? I haven't seen the animal pelts, parchment and rock carving data that you refer to but somehow I doubt they were collected in a scientific and reliable manner. Give me a break! :rolleyes:

And you're saying that we humans have been using "large amounts" of fossil fuels for about 200 year even though the first oil well wasn't drilled until the mid 1800's. Other than coal, it would have been pretty hard for the pioneers and turn of the century consumers to use "large amouts of fossil fuels".

And let's say that we discount, oh I don't know, a couple billion years of the Earth's history and start with the ice age. No molten surface, just some ice, a few cavemen freezing thier behinds off and the earth. So you take the actual valid climate data (I'll give you a couple hundred years worth) and you still have a ridiculously small sampling. If a real (i.e. unbiased, I'm not trying to get another grant to pay the rent) scientist were to present such a small sampling of data in any other type of scientific study they would be laughed at and ridiculed. Plus, your statement that, "There is no reason to study what was going on a few billion years ago", actually made me laugh but it's typical of the global warming zealot thinking and their cherry picking of data. I mean, what if all this climate history actually meant that the Earth really DOES have climatic cycles? What would Al Gore and his disciples do?

I can now see why this thread (which has nothing to do with reefkeeping) hasn't been shut down. One of the RC mods has drank the global warming Kool Aid. Nothing biased about that huh?
 
<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=12921486#post12921486 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by greenbean36191
The average temp from 1961-1990. I'm not sure what the value is.
Only a 30 yr average! How/why? Please elaborate.
You reallydon't know what that value is. ;)
 
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<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=12922269#post12922269 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by aslavatortin
People, this is getting absurd...
It's only absurd after you simplify it down to the level of absurdity.

Like you did here:
<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=12922269#post12922269 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by aslavatortin
If the glaciers shrink and recede, it's global warming; if the glaciers grow and expand...well, that's global warming, too. :lol:

Did you read this part?
A U.S. government inventory found that, with one exception, Shasta's glaciers are the only ones growing on the U.S. mainland, said Andrew Fountain, a professor at Portland State University, who worked on the assessment.

Was this part absurd too?
As the ocean warms, more moisture evaporates. As moisture moves inland, it falls as snow ¡X enough on Shasta to more than offset a 1 C temperature rise in the past century.
 
My point was that no matter what happens, you guys will find a way to make it because of global warming. You are proving my point! I find it hilarious that none of you guys will back down from ANY of this stuff no matter how ridiculous it gets:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: !!
 
It's pointless. Let 'em buy Al Gore another "green" mansion. They don't even know when they're being duped. I'm going to start selling carbon credits to these guys. They must be racked with guilt because of the carbon footprint of their eco-friendly, halide-humming reef tanks.
 
<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=12922473#post12922473 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by FishNFun
It's pointless. Let 'em buy Al Gore another "green" mansion. They don't even know when they're being duped. I'm going to start selling carbon credits to these guys. They must be racked with guilt because of the carbon footprint of their eco-friendly, halide-humming reef tanks.

You know what, Mr. FishNFun? You don't seem to be taking this seriously. You need to accept the fact the we (the human race) are a terrible blight on this planet. As such, we need to kill ourselves off. However, this would result in a massive release of methane as all of our bodies rotted simultaneously, so we will proceed in phases. You will be notified when your time has come; in the meantime, move into a tree fort and compost your own poo to conserve energy. And remember, although granola and tofurkey are healthy, the more you consume, the more waste you create for the environment to process.
 
I fully believe that the Hadley Centre has ulterior motives (ie to promote global warming) and that they will do whatever they have to in order to meet those motives.
Of course you do. It doesn't give you the answers you want. That's fine though because there are other records such as NASA's GISStemp which agree with the Hadley data.

UAH is tied to no activist groups (because those of us on the global-warming-is-natural side of the argument don't believe in activist groups) so I trust their data.
Oh, you mean like the Cato Institute, CEI, Heartland, GCMI, And the Independent Institute, all of which are funded by by oil and automobile companies, and constantly publish contrarian literature- and all of which John Christy is a member? The man is my freaking state climatologist. It's a political position. He's a paid speaker for Cooler Heads and CEI. It's hard to make a solid argument that he's independent and has no ulterior motives.
 
<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=12924637#post12924637 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by greenbean36191
Of course you do. It doesn't give you the answers you want. That's fine though because there are other records such as NASA's GISStemp which agree with the Hadley data.

There's also the NASA report that predicts cooling for as long as the next 30 years but let's keep that hush hush. No need to bring up any contradictory data at this point.
 
<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=12924637#post12924637 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by greenbean36191
Of course you do. It doesn't give you the answers you want. That's fine though because there are other records such as NASA's GISStemp which agree with the Hadley data.

Did I not put a link in my post to the article about how Hadley "adjusted" their data to make it inline with GISS?

And by the way, NASA and the Marshall Space Flight Center pretty much work in tandem with UAH; Marshall and the Redstone Arsenal are right up the street from them, literally.
 
So you're arguing that the temperature readings collected BEFORE there were even thermometers (or thermoscopes as they were first called) are valid and deserve consideration? I haven't seen the animal pelts, parchment and rock carving data that you refer to but somehow I doubt they were collected in a scientific and reliable manner.
Absolutely. The records match the thermometers for 200 years. We know how they're calibrated an they overlap with each other for significant periods of time. Even single samples can give multiple different metrics for measuring temperature.

And you're saying that we humans have been using "large amounts" of fossil fuels for about 200 year even though the first oil well wasn't drilled until the mid 1800's. Other than coal, it would have been pretty hard for the pioneers and turn of the century consumers to use "large amouts of fossil fuels".
Look at what powered the industrial revolution. Coal.

I mean, what if all this climate history actually meant that the Earth really DOES have climatic cycles?
Um, the climatic data that you discount shows exactly that. No one denies that natural cycles of warming and cooling have occurred and continue to occur. It's a straw man argument.

If a real (i.e. unbiased, I'm not trying to get another grant to pay the rent) scientist were to present such a small sampling of data in any other type of scientific study they would be laughed at and ridiculed.
They have presented the data multiple times. There are no scientists getting grants to pay the rent. People making that argument really demonstrate their ignorance of how granting works.

First of all, most scientists are paid primarily by salary. There are almost always strict limits to how much money we're allowed to keep from grants. Usually that's less than 1-3 months worth of summer salary. In practice, almost no one is keeping nearly that much. To give you an idea of how much we make from grants, I'm currently working under a $150,000, 3-year grant. From that 3-year project I'm pocketing as much money as I could make working a minimum wage job for 5 of my normal work days.

Also, the idea that we have to drum up crises to get grant money is complete garbage. To get those grants we have to submit proposals to panels of experts on the subject, some of whom are likely to be competing with us for grant money in the near future. They expect you to cite the previous work on the subject and stay within what's known. Being overly dramatic and making unsubstantiated claims is a great way to send up a red flag and get the proposal shot down. They don't really care if you propose to solve some crisis anyway. They want to know how your work will contribute to our understanding of something we don't know yet. Basically, they want you to demonstrate a knowledge gap and how you plan to fill it. The practical reason for answering it is not of primary importance.

Again, using my current grant as an example. I'm working on how increasing sea temps affect clowns and anemones. To get the money I was competing against people who are looking into things like the decline of reefs. However, IIRC the grant proposal didn't even mention temperature increases or how they're affecting reefs. It simply said that virtually nothing is known about anemone metabolism, so we're seeking to study it to understand the nature of symbiosis between the two animals and how they benefit.

What would Al Gore and his disciples do?
It annoys me to no end to keep seeing this man's name mentioned. He is a politician and did not write the science and IMO doesn't do a great job of promoting it. Study into anthropogenic warming started about 100 years before he was even born and the science was already well established by the time he wrote his book. No one who is actually educated on the subject is a disciple of Gore, and I'd venture most of them were already well educated on the subject before he picked it up. I've personally been following it for almost 20 years and Gore has done absolutely ZERO to influence my knowledge or stance on the issue.
 
Did I not put a link in my post to the article about how Hadley "adjusted" their data to make it inline with GISS?
And UAH corrected their data to make it more in line with HadCrut and GISS.

And by the way, NASA and the Marshall Space Flight Center pretty much work in tandem with UAH; Marshall and the Redstone Arsenal are right up the street from them, literally.
I was born and raised in Huntsville and worked on the arsenal. My dad and sister did too. I'm pretty familiar with the area.
 
I remember now why I went so long resisting the urge to even open this thread--it just depresses me. It's not the global warming issue that depresses me nearly as much as the attitudes people have about it!

Of course, I also got depressed when I heard that a coalition of major environmental organizations have begun debating whether to change their position on the Endangered Species Act, based on current consultations with scientists. The concern is that it is too late to even try to save a great many of the species and we should settle for trying to fend off the worst of the attacks on the remaining intact ecosystems--or pieces thereof.

Did anyone else ever notice that the main criticisms of those with environmental concerns always boils down to, "They don't put money first."

Of course, the climate and ecosystems have always changed. Reefs have adapted to these changes. The "problem" is that the systems are likely changing MUCH more rapidly than in the past and natural adaptation may be too slow to keep up.

The consequences of adapting our behaviors, just in case, is a healthier planet and new kinds of good paying jobs and create new economic arrangements. The only reason to not adapt our behaviors is that it would interfer with the current economic arrangements. Period.

If we could find a way to make it profitable to be responsible for our actions, then the right wingers would also be on board.
 
<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=12924794#post12924794 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by greenbean36191

I was born and raised in Huntsville and worked on the arsenal. My dad and sister did too. I'm pretty familiar with the area.

Were you really? That's where my family is from as well, that's funny. I actually graduated from UAH in 2006. My mom and a whole bunch of my great-uncles worked on the arsenal when they built the Columbia.
 
<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=12925037#post12925037 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by DNickell
If we could find a way to make it profitable to be responsible for our actions, then the right wingers would also be on board.

Are you kidding? I don't think you have been paying attention to a thing that is going on around you! There is a TON of money being made off of "going green"!! Tom Daschle has made obscene amounts of money off of the ethanol scam alone, he sits on the boards of three ethanol companies! Back before all this mess really got going, somebody asked Warren Buffett what his opinion of it was, his response: "I don't know a whole lot about it, but I do know that a whole lot of money is going to be made from it." WAKE UP!!:lol: :lol: :lol:
 
<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=12924637#post12924637 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by greenbean36191
That's fine though because there are other records such as NASA's GISStemp which agree with the Hadley data.

GISS has not only been called into question, but undeniably been shown to be flawed as well!! Stephen McIntyre has forced NASA to admit that niether 2006 nor 1998 were the hottest years on record, but that 1934 was! None of these records can be relied on, and even if they could, we don't have nearly enough of a dataset of temperatures prior to 200 years ago to reach ANYTHING close to statistical significance if you look at earth's existence vs man's existence as a whole!
 
I'm curious what other conspiracy theories you believe in.

Is Big Pharma suppressing information about the wonders of natural medicine? Were the Twin Towers brought down by the Israelis or White House insiders? Is Astrology the only true Science? Was the moon landing just a hoax to trick the Ruskies? Can magnets alone cure cancer, or does the cure also require Echinacea? And childhood vaccines certainly cause autism, right?

I know you're out there in Left field. I'm just wondering how far...
 
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