I love this topic. First off I would like to separate the discussion of coastal pollution from global warming. Coastal pollution is a travesty and those responsible should have what's coming to them.
Global warming is a fabulous study in the fear factor. Anyone remember Valley Forge and the crossing of the Delaware? Remember the pics of Washington and his men shivering in the cold? Well pretty much since then the globe has been warming.
Our planet has had an unprecedented period of stable climate lasting 10000 years. Ice cores from Greenland and the poles show our planet is capable of very sudden climate changes independent of any human influence.
In my job I deal with extremely intelligent individuals who spend all their time creating and working with computer models. As such I am well aware garbage in =garbage out. A computer model is only worth what is put into it. It always amazes me how much the media swoons for the latest paper with a computer model. Computer models are notorius for saying what the creater meant it to say. Not necesarily on purpose. Some interesting studies on biases showed lots of unintentional biases crept into all sorts of experiments that always tended to back up the predicted result. That's why clinical trials are almost always double blind.
I guess I'm the hard data sort of guy. When the computer models can't even match the climate of the past 5 years then how will it predict the next 10? One thing that always gets me is the lack of hard data. And the proliferation of "romantic" ideas that sound really good. Look back at US temp records dating back to before 1850. Oh wait you can't anymore. They were taken down. Well what they showed was the US temp in rural areas did start to increase before 1850 and have been rising ever since. Started rising well before the CO2 levels were measured to be on the rise. In fact temps did drop for a couple years just when the CO2 levels started to rise. Hmmm. Yep that greenhouse gas must be the cause of global warming. For fun reading dig into how much the Kyoto accords were really meant to decrease global temps.
So what can be the cause? Almost none of the computer models take into account solar fluctuations or orbit variations even though we know the Moander minimum set off a major ice age and we know earth orbit variations caused mini ice ages in the past. Sun spot cycles cause major climate changes when the cycles start to overlap each other. We do know land use change has had a significant impact on land temps. Unfortunately no one has any clue as to how to fix these land use impacts. But also no one can show how these will raise the pole temps or the ocean temps.
The fear factor I mentioned above. Seems global warming starting hitting the mainstream within a year of the Berlin Wall coming down. Nice coincidence.
Ok I'll get off my soap box now. Yes I believe the Earth is warming up. I do think we need to better understand land use. And I'm all for reducing pollution. I refuse to drive a SUV etc. I've studied alternative energy sources for several semesters in school. I believe they can really help. The economics of oil now makes this more likely. We need to decrease our dependence on fossil fuels. All of the above. But I do not believe greenhouse gases are the major cause of global warming.
To frame this for the reefs. The 10000 years I mentioned of stable climate had enabled reefs to grow where they never did before. And to a much larger extent with greater diversity than ever before. This 10000 year stability had never happened before as far back as they have been able to analyze the ice cores.
I've had my say. This would be a great happy hour topic over several 6 packs.
It is a fascinating highly complicated subject.
Global warming is a fabulous study in the fear factor. Anyone remember Valley Forge and the crossing of the Delaware? Remember the pics of Washington and his men shivering in the cold? Well pretty much since then the globe has been warming.
Our planet has had an unprecedented period of stable climate lasting 10000 years. Ice cores from Greenland and the poles show our planet is capable of very sudden climate changes independent of any human influence.
In my job I deal with extremely intelligent individuals who spend all their time creating and working with computer models. As such I am well aware garbage in =garbage out. A computer model is only worth what is put into it. It always amazes me how much the media swoons for the latest paper with a computer model. Computer models are notorius for saying what the creater meant it to say. Not necesarily on purpose. Some interesting studies on biases showed lots of unintentional biases crept into all sorts of experiments that always tended to back up the predicted result. That's why clinical trials are almost always double blind.
I guess I'm the hard data sort of guy. When the computer models can't even match the climate of the past 5 years then how will it predict the next 10? One thing that always gets me is the lack of hard data. And the proliferation of "romantic" ideas that sound really good. Look back at US temp records dating back to before 1850. Oh wait you can't anymore. They were taken down. Well what they showed was the US temp in rural areas did start to increase before 1850 and have been rising ever since. Started rising well before the CO2 levels were measured to be on the rise. In fact temps did drop for a couple years just when the CO2 levels started to rise. Hmmm. Yep that greenhouse gas must be the cause of global warming. For fun reading dig into how much the Kyoto accords were really meant to decrease global temps.
So what can be the cause? Almost none of the computer models take into account solar fluctuations or orbit variations even though we know the Moander minimum set off a major ice age and we know earth orbit variations caused mini ice ages in the past. Sun spot cycles cause major climate changes when the cycles start to overlap each other. We do know land use change has had a significant impact on land temps. Unfortunately no one has any clue as to how to fix these land use impacts. But also no one can show how these will raise the pole temps or the ocean temps.
The fear factor I mentioned above. Seems global warming starting hitting the mainstream within a year of the Berlin Wall coming down. Nice coincidence.
Ok I'll get off my soap box now. Yes I believe the Earth is warming up. I do think we need to better understand land use. And I'm all for reducing pollution. I refuse to drive a SUV etc. I've studied alternative energy sources for several semesters in school. I believe they can really help. The economics of oil now makes this more likely. We need to decrease our dependence on fossil fuels. All of the above. But I do not believe greenhouse gases are the major cause of global warming.
To frame this for the reefs. The 10000 years I mentioned of stable climate had enabled reefs to grow where they never did before. And to a much larger extent with greater diversity than ever before. This 10000 year stability had never happened before as far back as they have been able to analyze the ice cores.
I've had my say. This would be a great happy hour topic over several 6 packs.
It is a fascinating highly complicated subject.
