So are you saying that the CFL life spans were "wild predictions" and NOT based on actual testing?
No, that is not what I am saying. All I am saying is that the curves generated by the statistics are a fairly good representation of the life span of the LEDs because the expected matches the observed so far, so the probability is it will continue to do so in the future. Operating conditions are an implied factor in this of course.
Also I disagree that in a reef environment that they will correspond with the datasheet, the datasheet specs were tested under optimal conditions, without daily on/offs and dimming.
Depends on the situation.... Some LED setups like the Aqua Illumination modules have logic control on their internal temperature. Others may use thermal cutoff switches that keep the temperature from going outside of their operating range. Many could mimic datasheet conditions fairly well.
Most CFL fixtures do not have the level of internal thermal regulation/control that some LED setups do, so they may spend a lot of time outside of their datasheet operating/testing ranges. Of course, some cheap LED fixtures, or simple DIY setups would do the same thing. I guess I am just saying that it is possible to have various LED setups, as well as CFL setups that last for widely differing amounts of time.
If you re-read my post, you will see that I did say that temperature control and proper power profile are a key part of having them last as long as the datasheet says. I guess I could be more explicit and say the closer you mimic optimum conditions, the better your results will be.
As for the on/off situation, some do account for daily on/offs as many of the lifespan quotes out there are based on X hours per day and so on. As for maintaining optimal conditions, logic control or thermal regulation devices can keep it pretty close as mentioned above.
As for the dimming, LEDs are dimmed by changing the current that goes through the circuit. So if the projection curve was generated at 700ma, and you run yours at 350ma, you may get more time out of them, as they will run cooler, have less stress on them, etc.
Anyway, it is nice to see you like LEDs as well. I think they will become more common place in reefing in the future. If I could afford to go all LED now I would
Cheers,
Landon