Try this, Go ahead and save up for the replacement. When you get it, light them up side by side and you can see for your self. If you think the old one keep using it till you don't like it. The problem is that every different bulb ages differently depending on your lighting schedule, bulb maker, kelvin rating and wattage. I have heard that people have to change out 400w 20K radiums after 6 months but I have also read of 10K 400w ushios lasting well over a year. Also 20K's seem to change spectrum alot quicker than the 10k's.