OT - When does a recession become a depression?

[Genetics]

I follow the markets for investment purposes and have become increasingly worried. The bank issues were indicative in the market months before the shares started to crash. The problem now is indicators are pointing towards something worse than 1929. If there are more than 4 major banks by 2010, I think alot of people will be surprised.

With the recent AIG revolving credit issuance by the gov, the collapse of Lehman, and the potential sell off of Morgan Stanley sectors we're just starting to see the beginning of this crisis unfold. The only way to keep the economic numbers going is to create massive bailout plans, that in the past hasn't worked well. Now it looks as if the government is going to infuse 1+ trillion dollars into the economy to help prevent the financial collapse of some of the biggest banks in history. All while trying to keep inflation in check, which is out of control, and still hasn't shown up much in the CPI.

 

[lakee911]

I've been getting a little worried too. Start saving your pennies.

 

[CHOPRJOHN]

When your neighbor loses his job...its a recession When you lose your job... its a depression

 

[hollback]

I am a firm believer in owning gold and now is one of the best times in history to buy. I work with a doctor who has similar belief. He has 85% of his retirement in actual metal. There is nothing safer from an investment perspective than owning gold. Unlike a stock or bond, it will never be worth nothing. Palladium is another good one.

 

[jddaniel]

When you and your neighbor both have lost your job, it's a crisis! It is getting a little scary to see some of the changes coming.

 

[jerrinehart]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13390814#post13390814 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by hollback
I am a firm believer in owning gold and now is one of the best times in history to buy. I work with a doctor who has similar belief. He has 85% of his retirement in actual metal. There is nothing safer from an investment perspective than owning gold. Unlike a stock or bond, it will never be worth nothing. Palladium is another good one.

I have been preaching this to people for about 5 years now. The fall of our economy is coming, and this is the best way to prepare for it. Sadly, I think they want the economy to crash, how else could they scare people into a new world government. (thats a topic for another discussion though)

Check out what Congressman Ron Paul has to say about this, video at the bottom of the page.

 

[biecacka]

in a off the path but related topic, times are tough. i sell cars downtown and ford just pulled our name so as of 11/7/08 i have no job and no sevrence package......anyone out here hiring?

 

[BlueCorn]

Let's keep the politics out of this and it can stay open.

 

[CleveYank]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13390910#post13390910 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by jerrinehart
I have been preaching this to people for about 5 years now. The fall of our economy is coming, and this is the best way to prepare for it. Sadly, I think they want the economy to crash, how else could they scare people into a new world government. (thats a topic for another discussion though)

Check out what Congressman Ron Paul has to say about this, video at the bottom of the page.

Things just do not happen on accident. And the self destructive policies and unconstitutional methods by most of the leadership makes this whole march towards a global world government more plausible reality to consider and less of a paranoid belief.

The slow and deliberate changes no matter how subtle do seem to point towards this idea. I've never quite bought into it, and 15 years ago if you even elluded to this you were called a fricken whacko. The scary part is I'm beginning to wonder if those folks are starting to make more sense now.

I wonder how our country will feed itself with no real GNP/GDP numbers to show. I wonder how you defend the world and our values with what? Dust? Rhetoric? Change the name to the United States of WalMart?
I wonder as a nation what our children's children world will be like?
Who buys a car when you have no job to buy it with?
Where do these high paying service sector jobs come in if they are being farmed out overseas?
How do you slow market fluctuations when during the little loss slow down a while back some housing finance expert reports the bottom will fall out. And low and behold 2 days later everyone bails on banks heavy in mortgage debt service and wow...it began falling on it's ear. And now the last little hick-up.

 

[serpentman]

Its pretty scary out there. The proposed bailout program has been likened to bailing the economy out with a credit card. Sooner or later the bill will come due. Although it will be applied to the deficit, there was an economist yesterday that was saying this equates to ~$8500 per taxpayer. The really scary part is the well is not bottomless. Once the govt starts bailing everyone out, it becomes a slippery slope.

Politics aside, whoever wins in Nov will inherit a mess.

 

[ronc98]

The infusion of money and the huge dept that results scares me, If they do not reinstate the regulations that were in place to prevent these types of things from happening in the first place, We are destined for this to happen again.

I am very anti regulations unless there is greed involved then I think they should regulate the crap out of it.

It is going to be interesting this winter when people have to heat their homes and they wont be riding their bikes as much for transportation.

Serpentman is correct this is going to be a mess!

 

[CaveManNOhio]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13391287#post13391287 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by beerguy
Let's keep the politics out of this and it can stay open.

I guess that means I'll stay out of it. :rollface:

 

[icu2]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13390814#post13390814 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by hollback
I am a firm believer in owning gold and now is one of the best times in history to buy. I work with a doctor who has similar belief. He has 85% of his retirement in actual metal. There is nothing safer from an investment perspective than owning gold. Unlike a stock or bond, it will never be worth nothing. Palladium is another good one.

Actually, about 4 years ago it was $400 an ounce. That was the time to buy. I did but not enough. While true it will never be worth nothing, it can still go up and down; I have noticed its trend is the opposite of the market though- market up (great economy) gold down market down- gold up. Of course it is all relative to the value of the dollar as well.

My .02

 

[MJAnderson]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13390814#post13390814 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by hollback
I am a firm believer in owning gold and now is one of the best times in history to buy. I work with a doctor who has similar belief. He has 85% of his retirement in actual metal. There is nothing safer from an investment perspective than owning gold. Unlike a stock or bond, it will never be worth nothing. Palladium is another good one.

Terrible advice!

There are many things safer than gold. It has a place in any well managed portfolio but it's a huge financial gamble to put even a good portion of your money in it. In the late 70's early 80s it was almost $900 an oz. By the mid 80s it was down to under $300. From 1990 until 2003 in kept dipping up and down between $250 and $400 but had you held gold for that entire time period you would have made $0. Plus no dividends or interest.

In 1995 Palladium was $200 an oz and 10 years later it was....$200 an oz.

 

[jerrinehart]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13392411#post13392411 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by MJAnderson
Terrible advice!

There are many things safer than gold. It has a place in any well managed portfolio but it's a huge financial gamble to put even a good portion of your money in it. In the late 70's early 80s it was almost $900 an oz. By the mid 80s it was down to under $300. From 1990 until 2003 in kept dipping up and down between $250 and $400 but had you held gold for that entire time period you would have made $0. Plus no dividends or interest.

In 1995 Palladium was $200 an oz and 10 years later it was....$200 an oz.

I think this was his point mate.

Unlike a stock or bond, it will never be worth nothing.

 

[vance.110]

MJAnderson is right, while gold holds a place as one of many assets it shouldn't be the only holding. True, gold will never be worthless, but if you buy at 900 and it goes to 300 you're in a lot worse shape than the majority of the market right now.

 

[hollback]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13392411#post13392411 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by MJAnderson
Terrible advice!

There are many things safer than gold. It has a place in any well managed portfolio but it's a huge financial gamble to put even a good portion of your money in it. In the late 70's early 80s it was almost $900 an oz. By the mid 80s it was down to under $300. From 1990 until 2003 in kept dipping up and down between $250 and $400 but had you held gold for that entire time period you would have made $0. Plus no dividends or interest.

In 1995 Palladium was $200 an oz and 10 years later it was....$200 an oz.

I'm going to disagree.

I agree and would not put everything in metals but my 401k, OPERS Stock/Bonds, don't seem to be doing any better.

Actually gold only went over 900 for a very shot period of time and was previously about $250 per oz. It then declined again and there was a reason for that.

I agree that gold does the opposite of the stock market. On the other hand history has shown that gold increases as another market increases, oil. With oil prices growing, gold should/will follow. The spike in 1978 was directly related to Iran oil.

I guess I should have clairified that I see gold as a 5-15 year investment. A graph of these time lengths has a nice increase.

My point on Palladium has more to do with it's chemical makeup and future energy sources. Palladiums unique ability to absorb 900 times it's own weight in hydrogen will be critical in Hydrogen fuel storage for Hydrogen fuel cells.

I will say that I am FAR from an expert on gold/palladium but I do know people that are and they seem to make sense.

 

[vance.110]

Well my wedding ring is made of palladium, you tell me what kind of investment that was!!!!

 

[hollback]

I feel your pain. Mine's titanium!

 

[vance.110]

I'm not talking about the cost of the metal... I actually got mine a few years ago while prices were down I'm talking about the cost of a wife