'Old Tank Syndrome' has been difficult to quantify, but IMO it has much to do with the aquarist 'letting things ride/slide' (Joe Y. coined the term 'LARS', aka 'Lazy A** Reefer Syndrome'). After years of a tank successfully 'doing it's thing' the aquarist tends to get complacent (human nature). Maybe water changes are put off, cleaning is delayed, alkalinity isn't checked as much (if at all), salinity isn't monitored well, etc. Eventually, a 'perfect storm' of maladies hits and 'poof', the system breaks down. It certainly is not inevitable or we'd see every tank experience this (we don't). Smaller tanks tend to be prone to this in less time due to the typically much higher biomass/waste produced to water volume ratio.
The 'dominant bacteria' idea is interesting, but I'm not convinced it's a 'cause'. Rather, neglecting a tank's maintenance can skew conditions to perhaps favor certain types of bacteria over others resulting in unwanted consequences.
Switching LR and LS every 5 years or so was promoted by Dr. Shimek a while back since he believed that they accumulated 'toxic metals'. IMO, it is an unnecessary and a wasteful practice. There are many reefers using decades old material without ill effects, myself included.
There is no 'cook book' to avoiding OTS, but if you examine those tanks that have survived a good long while you'll likely find a reefer who has a good working knowledge of reef tank biology, is consistent with effective maintenance practices, regularly observes the organisms, promotes stability, etc.