<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=15703997#post15703997 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by greenbean36191
It's pretty hard to argue that the lionfish in the Atlantic are from anything but aquarium releases.
During Andrew, it's known that at least 6 lionfish escaped from a broken aquarium on Biscayne Bay. Several were spotted in the area shortly afterwards. The first lionfish captured in the Atlantic came from Miami in 2000. Within a few years they had been spotted in South Carolina and within another year, NY. The first capture in the Keys only came within the last year. The timing of the spread suggests they had only recently become established in large numbers in the early 2000s and the site of introduction was somewhere south of SC and north of the Keys.
Genetic testing of the Atlantic population shows that every one of them captured so far can trace their ancestry back to about 6-8 founding individuals, all from the same small region in Indonesia and that there's not just one, but 2 species. That is huge because it basically eliminates the already remote possibility of the fish coming in from ballast water. The fact that they came from one of the biggest livestock collection areas in the world is also highly suggestive.
The ballast water hypothesis fails for a few reasons. First is that to get from their native habitat to the Atlantic there are only a few routes. The northern route through the Arctic Ocean and the southern route through the Southern Ocean would kill them due to temperature. The routes through the Suez or Panama Canals require the ships to dump and then take on new ballast water on either side of the canals.
The other big flaw is that there were 6-8 founders from 2 different species all hailing from the same area. The chances of lionfish making it across in ballast water once are small. The chances of them making it across at least 6 times within a few years of each other is very remote. The chance of each one of those ships bringing them across sailing from the same small area is highly improbable. If it's a common occurrence for lionfish to survive in ballast water, as 6-8 introductions would suggest, then there should be invasions elsewhere, especially near the canals and those invasions should originate from areas all across the lionfish's native range. There aren't and they don't.