<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13999702#post13999702 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by greenbean36191
The most recent published data is 18% figure, not the 40% figure from the early 90s, so I'm not sure how you can derive that more than 50% of the fish are still being caught with cyanide even accounting for the poor sensitivity of the test and corrupt reporting.
The tests are also being performed at all stages of the chain including directly from collectors to reduce the chances of testing fish after they've already cleared the cyanide.
There's no doubt that the BFAR numbers are low, but AFAIK they are the only hard numbers on the subject. They also have an extremely large sample size with wide coverage. The 70-90% estimates are exactly that- estimates. They're only as good as the assumptions they're based on which tend to be pretty bad and often intended to illustrate worst-case scenarios, not necessarily the best estimate. You can't look at the number of tons of fish passing through Manila, estimate how much is going to the food market, use the average weight of fish caught (food or ornamental) to determine the number of fish that represents, then estimate the average weight of cyanide used per fish, then divide by the amount of cyanide used each year and expect to come up with an accurate percentage. Likewise, you're going to get excessively high numbers if you assume that every boat with cyanide aboard uses it on every fish or that every fish lost in the chain of custody was due to cyanide.
I think it's pretty safe to say that the true number is somewhere between the best case scenario of 18-40% and the worst case scenario of 70-90%. Split the difference and you get ~55%. That would mean that about 71% of Indonesia's fish would have to be cyanide caught to make up the majority in the hobby since the two countries account for 80% of the industry. It's possible, but show me hard numbers that support it.
Another thing to note about the BFAR testing of the later 90's is it wasn't random. The exporters chose which fish to send in. I've got a stack of those BFAR certificates from my old job, what a joke those are I'll see if I can find one of the scans I made and post it here