I was going by the LED's we use at work, but that sounds about right still.
Most tanks are on what, 10 hours a day? So that's about 13 years before you hit 70%, opposed to a MH hitting 70% in 11 months.....
That 50k hours is under IDEAL, PERFECT conditions. CREE tests them in a TOTALLY controlled lab where temps are perfect ALL the time.
Anyone that has been in this hobby for more than a month knows that our tanks are NOT an IDEAL condition for technology.
I think people are up in the night if they think LED's will last 50k hours over our tanks. Kind of like when T5 became popular, everyone was shouting from the rooftops that they would last 2 years, no problem. You also didn't have to cool them. :lolspin: :hammer:
Fast forward a couple years and we now know that T5's last a year and you DO have to cool them if you want max performance and bulb life.
Now all of that aside.
If LED's follow suit and last half what the manufactures claim, 25k hours, you are still looking at roughly 6.5 years before they need replacing. In that 6.5 year stretch of time, MH and T5 people will replace bulbs anywhere from 6-12 times. Assuming the common MH bulb costs more than $50/bulb and T5's cost $25/bulb, that is A LOT of savings right there.
IME in that 6.5 years you will also replace every ballast whether it be T5 or MH. T5 ballasts are around $40 each and MH ballasts range pretty dramatically.
Some of the new LED drivers coming out are stating they will last just as long as the LED itself, if not longer. I can't remember exact numbers but when I looked into the Thomas Research drivers they were claiming something like 80k hours. If you can keep the drivers cool and away from the humidity, they
should last that long. But once again if they last even half that you are looking at 40k hours of usage!
Anyway you want to break it down LED's will save you money. If you plan to stay in this hobby less than a year, go buy a used MH or T5 setup. That will be cheaper in the end for most. I don't know about most of you, but I didn't get in this hobby thinking I would try it for a year and see what I think.
I jumped into this hobby hoping to stay in it for life, I am now at 5 years. One thing I can tell you though, I don't have a
single item from my very first tank in regards to equipment. I have some coral still but no equipment.
Just my 2 cents.