Another sad article on our ocean's health...

[TXAlbert]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=12942856#post12942856 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by rhoptowit
+2

+ 3

Thank you Greenbean

 

[LoudProudNPunk]

how much for a frag shipped to 94526?

 

[greenbean36191]

I was under the impression that solar radiation and water vapor could not be acuratly accounted for, is that not correct?

Not exactly. Both are two of the major sources of uncertainty in climate models, but both are accounted for and the uncertainty is smaller than the signal.

 

[LockeOak]

I just got home from the International Coral Reef Symposium. Completely exhausting but very valuable meeting. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg's blog has some coverage www.climateshifts.org .

 

[TXAlbert]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=12942933#post12942933 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by AlbertoMexico
+ 3

Thank you Greenbean

+ 4

 

[LoudProudNPunk]

should i cook my liverock?

 

[virginiadiver69]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=12945306#post12945306 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by greenbean36191
Not exactly. Both are two of the major sources of uncertainty in climate models, but both are accounted for and the uncertainty is smaller than the signal.

So two of the biggest contributors to warming are two of the major sources of uncertainty? Interesting. Well...at least their accounted for I guess.
I hope you can all see now why a very large group of people are not so gung-ho about jumping on this band wagon. Beanybaby has confirmed two of my biggest doubts about this "the sky is falling" mentality.
So for that, I will also say:

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=12942933#post12942933 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by AlbertoMexico
Thank you Greenbean

I truly enjoy these threads for their ability to remind me of how much of a ridiculuos farce this all is.

 

[billsreef]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=12947710#post12947710 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by virginiadiver69
So two of the biggest contributors to warming are two of the major sources of uncertainty?

Think of that uncertainty like the uncertainty in the thermometer in your tank, or the thermostat for your heater. They are not precise, they have uncertainty. For the instance, the thermometers I use for the tanks in my lab are rated for +/- 1 degree Celsius. If the thermometer reads 21C, one doesn't truly know if the temperature is actually 20, 21 or 22C. Yet it's quite acceptable, as I expect you find the ones you use in your tank

 

[virginiadiver69]

:lol: :lol: :lol:

 

[FishNFun]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=12948382#post12948382 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by billsreef
Think of that uncertainty like the uncertainty in the thermometer in your tank, or the thermostat for your heater. They are not precise, they have uncertainty. For the instance, the thermometers I use for the tanks in my lab are rated for +/- 1 degree Celsius. If the thermometer reads 21C, one doesn't truly know if the temperature is actually 20, 21 or 22C. Yet it's quite acceptable, as I expect you find the ones you use in your tank

Except that the variations (take water vapor for example) have been shown to have a MUCH larger variation than the narrow range example you cited - as much as 13% per decade during the period 1973 - 1990. If my thermometer was off by that much I'd toss it out. Sounds like a pretty "flexible" model to me.

 

[Tang Salad]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=12948672#post12948672 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by virginiadiver69
:lol: :lol: :lol:

There's nothing really funny about a guy being nice enough to help you undertsand something you clearly don't, but should.

 

[virginiadiver69]

Hey bill...I saw a photo of you mowing your lawn...

 

[virginiadiver69]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=12948698#post12948698 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by Tang Salad
There's nothing really funny about a guy being nice enough to help you undertsand something you clearly don't, but should.

Oh...I'm sorry for not paying the thermometer analogy it's proper respect.

Is this better:

 

[billsreef]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=12948708#post12948708 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by virginiadiver69
Hey bill...I saw a photo of you mowing your lawn...

Actually had that happen a couple of times at the last house I lived :lol:

 

[Tang Salad]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=12948804#post12948804 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by billsreef
Actually had that happen a couple of times at the last house I lived :lol:

And did you blame global warming?


I'm betting you didn't. :lol:

 

[billsreef]

Nope, I blamed a few Nor'easter's

 

[greenbean36191]

Except that the variations (take water vapor for example) have been shown to have a MUCH larger variation than the narrow range example you cited - as much as 13% per decade during the period 1973 - 1990.

That's measured variation, not uncertainty.

 

[FishNFun]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=12950999#post12950999 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by greenbean36191
That's measured variation, not uncertainty.

Do you want to expand on your statement in terms of the context of this discussion or are you just quoting a textbook?

 

[billsreef]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=12951178#post12951178 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by FishNFun
Do you want to expand on your statement in terms of the context of this discussion or are you just quoting a textbook?

What he is saying is that the variation is a known quantity that is accounted for, as opposed to an unknown that is merely guessed at

 

[greenbean36191]

Sure, I'll expand. Like Bill said, uncertainty isn't just some void for people to fill in with guesses. It's a statistical property based on the number of previous sample points, the amount of variation, and frequency distribution of those variations. Usually for scientific publications you choose a confidence interval of 95% which means you show the range of values around the mean that gives you a 95% probability of encompassing the true value based on the variation of the data. It's usually represented as a +/- value. The shorter the data series and the more variation it has, the wider the range of uncertainty.

In the case of the 13% increase in WV from 1973-1990, there's a high degree of certainty because those are measurements of a past trend in one region. If you tried to extrapolate that trend in time or space, your uncertainty would increase more and more as you projected it into the future or in area.