You will when you cannot get replacement bulbs. As more and more people are switching away from MH's the demand is reducing. As the demand goes down the cost of production skyrockets as it is much more economical to make 10,000 of a bulb compared to making 500 of them. As price skyrockets more people will switch till it will be unfeasible to make them in the special runs they now make them for the aquarium industry.
Initialy you will see higher prices and less selection on the MH's then you will see various brand names slowly dropping them. It is the same as what happened to the 55 Watt compact tubes. A year after they were proven you could select from over 50 different manufacturers and wave lengths. Now there are only about a dozen choices and very few of those are reef applicable.
Even look at the HOT-5's today. 8 years ago GE alone offered over 30 different K temp bulbs in every wattage. Now they are down to less than a dozen dozen different K temps, because sales dropped off on so many of the other offerings.
First off I work in the lighting industry and I have to disagree with allot that was said there... We specify 100 to 1 the amount of halides to led and probably way higher.
Also it will be a very long time before you cant buy a halide lamp and by that time most likely we will be on plasma or even something better. Also most likely the prices will come down not go up on halides as lamp manufacturers try to become more competitive. Its like hard drives the prices have came down as ssd drives become more available to keep people buying regular hard drives. The people who manufacture lamps are mostly not the same ones that manufacture leds. Also the companies that sell lamps dont want leds because they will sell allot less lamps because of the replacement factor.
The only way halide will go out is if electrical codes and energy codes make it so you cant use them. This will happen in California or Florida first where energy codes are tighter.
In high bay applications we actually use more t-5 than anything. Problem with leds it is hard to get vertical footcandles so if you have racks you cant see what is one them. You can use lenses but then the efficiency drops and you loose the advantage you get with led. This is the same problem that causes self shading in corals with leds.. You can tilt the front leds back to help with this but most led fixtures for reefs dont allow for this,..
We actually get more requests to not use led lighting than to use it on jobs.
Led is used in freezer applications, outdoor lighting and exit lighting more than anything.
Honestly plasma is the future in my opinion not led.
I think the main problem with led vs halides in a reef is with sps that come from shallow water and that is where most come from., Halides produce UV.. Some sps produce pigments to protect against UV like a sunscreen..Eventually these pigments go away and you loose some color. No doubt leds can keep corals alive and produce colors in most corals.. There is give and take with any lighting. If you need something more energy efficient and produce less heat led is the way to go.