A little confused, Who here justifies this hobby?

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While I appreciate you jumping in to tell me what you think Rossini is trying to say, I'd really prefer to hear it from the horse's mouth, so to speak.

**My last quote has been edited to include what's between the parenthesis**

Sorry to both of you ...

Personally, I don't think global warming will be the end of life on earth, or even of the human race, but it will most probably be the end of coral reefs. The impact of higher temperatures on reefs is pretty well documented, but ocean acidification resulting from higher CO2 concentrations may be an even bigger problem:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100422102950.htm

I would have thought that reef tank enthusiasts would be among the most vocal in arguing for reductions in CO2 emissions. Just my opinion ...
 
Sorry to both of you ...

Personally, I don't think global warming will be the end of life on earth, or even of the human race, but it will most probably be the end of coral reefs. The impact of higher temperatures on reefs is pretty well documented, but ocean acidification resulting from higher CO2 concentrations may be an even bigger problem:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100422102950.htm

I would have thought that reef tank enthusiasts would be among the most vocal in arguing for reductions in CO2 emissions. Just my opinion ...

Wait until the food and water shortages become worse....The climate changes won't kill off life on Earth; geologic records show climate change doesn't bode well for the dominant species at the time and have led to mass-extinctions.
 
Considering that co2 is a proven green house gas, and temp has been rising faster than normal since the industrial revolution; global warming is partly caused by humans. It is true that the worlds temp has gone up and down many times, but it's been happening faster than normal lately. Allmost said that humans can't posibly have any impact on the universe, i'd like to point out the fact that this post is on EARTH, not the universe. To say that humans have little effect on the world is really dumb. LOOK AT BP OIL SPIL! Even If global climit change isn't caused by humans, we should still stop our co2 habits.
Ever heard of carbonic acid? Due to the higher amounts of co2, it's predicted the average ocean pH will rise to 8.4 by 2100. We also plan to run out of oil by that time to! We reefers really should support enviormentaly friendly practices. Buy farmed live stock, get more efficient equipment. I'm 15, yet have spent an extra $800 to make my aquarium more eco-friendly. If a kid can, why can't you?
 
Yes it's true life on earth won't end because of us, but is it fair for us to drag down thousands of species into extinction, so we can ride in our cars!
 
MAC did us a service by convincing most everyone of the folly of a scheme proposing to certify livestock from hundreds of villages requiring city educated, salaried employees in each.
They ...more then anyone know how implausible the notion is...now.
Taking simple to certify batches of frozen fish on board large fishing vessels is slightly different they found.
Certifying dolphin safe tuna is easy compared to the tropical fish trade.
The amazing thing is, they thought it would be not so difficult at all and had it all in the manuals, the paperwork and the software ready to go.

There is no need for a verification program as much as a program to solve the problem....ie. conversion and training of poison collectors. That kind of program has not been attractive to NGOs and funders which shows how little they understand the process of production in marine tropicals.

Solving the problem first could then be followed up by a verification or policing effort. But failing to first change the fishers in the beginning is poor strategy,
They were not a group not change fisherfolk . They were city based, office people who imagined that better bookkeeping and software could succeed in lieu of actual fieldwork.
They taught us that the worth of any plan or program is in the implementation and not in untested, eggheaded strategies arrived at thru lack of experience, lack of talent and lack of knowledge.

Reality in the field is no stranger to some of us but was a complete stranger to them...and they kept it that way.

Whats best for the trade?
Who cares?
Where was there a concern evidenced?
Reform groups [ and I use the term loosely] arrived lightly at the subject matter ...garnered liitle support on the upswing and drew little notice as they failed.

I don't see much support for reform and sustainablity at all in the trade as evidenced by the day to day behavior of its citizens.

The loss of momentum and opportunity in the squandering of the past decade BY ECO-CARPETBAGGERS didn't help.
They have pretty much ruined what allure there was for doing the right thing.
Putting the right teams in play and supporting professionalism is something the big funders will not do. They enable and promote the good ol boys regardless of histories of failure.

There is an exception and it was when Cleveland Amory got sick of the Greenpeaces wishy washy, ineffective tactics and privately bankrolled Paul Watson to go after whalers and actually save whales.

Private or even aquarium trade corporate funding of reform may well have been the way to go as business people generally want quicker results and don't like to waste money and create complicated and inept bureaucratic schemes and endless paperwork. The obsession with paperwork in NGOs as opposed to actual work is rooted in the constant obsession with the next years funding . So much effort is spent on that and not on actually solving problems at the field level and earning the next years funding.

Mis-defining what it would take to convert fishers to sustainability fooled a lot of people and somehow "certification" got front loaded as some kind of "must-be panacea" or cure-all. Many fell for it as a default measure. The only perceived game in town became the game. How unfortunate.

In a real decade of reform....we would have the following Aquarium reform KEYWORDS;
fieldwork, netting material, aquarium trade training teams, fishermans education, onsite training, village level immersion, cultural understanding and respect.

After the real work is done.....monitors and observers may come and count beans, video activity and testify.

Steve
 
While I appreciate you jumping in to tell me what you think Rossini is trying to say, I'd really prefer to hear it from the horse's mouth, so to speak.
So, Rossini, I stated that I believe more scientists will tell you that some cosmic event (I never said meteorite) is more likely to wipe this planet clean of humanity than green house gases or global warming. You vehemently disagreed, to the point that you took a shot at me, telling me that basically, I am too stupid to carry on a discussion with you. {You should lose your ability to post here for that one, but I'll let it slide, providing you answer my question, which I will ask again.}






**My last quote has been edited to include what's between the parenthesis**

Here is some info on temperature increases I have found for you.

Temperature Change Projections
Due to uncertainties about future emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gases, their net warming effect in the atmosphere, and the response of the climate system, estimates of future temperature change are uncertain. With these caveats in mind, the IPCC made the following projections of future warming (IPCC, 2007):

The average surface temperature of the Earth is likely to increase by 2 to 11.5°F (1.1-6.4°C) by the end of the 21st century, relative to 1980-1990, with a best estimate of 3.2 to 7.2°F (1.8-4.0°C) (see Figure 1). The average rate of warming over each inhabited continent is very likely to be at least twice as large as that experienced during the 20th century.
Warming will not be evenly distributed around the globe (see Figure 2):
Land areas will warm more than oceans in part due to water's ability to store heat.


High latitudes will warm more than low latitudes in part due to positive feedback effects from melting ice (as discussed above).
Most of North America; all of Africa, Europe, northern and central Asia; and most of Central and South America are likely to warm more than the global average. Projections suggest that the warming will be close to the global average in south Asia, Australia and New Zealand, and southern South America.


The warming will differ by season, with winters warming more than summers in most areas.


For additional explanatory information about some of the projected spatial and seasonal differences in warming, see the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) fact sheet "Patterns of Global Warming" (PDF, 1 pp., 15 KB, About PDF)

If we go past another 2 degrees C of average global warming then there is an almost certain chance the arctic ice sheet will melt,the amazon would dry up, the perma frost would melt. These events are known as postive feedbacks. Less ice caps means less reflection of the suns energy, so it speeds up warming, the amazon drying out will release much more co2, and the perma frost will release massive amounts of methane.

Studies have shown that a 2 degree increase will confront 3 billion people with water stress, this in turn will lead to billions of deaths. The price of food will soar as the world goes into a food deficit.

I think we can all work out what horrors would happen if we go past 2 degrees and we get runaway warming from natural feedback mechanisms.
 
Define "cosmic event"; because honestly if your deluding yourself about the dangers of anthropogenic climate change the conversation is probably pointless. Some people still debate evolution in spite of compelling evidence.Scientists can produce factual,reproducible evidence that global warming and climate change will cause significant negative changes to our one and only planet. These changes are being observed presently.There is nothing natural about humans taking sequestered carbon, volatilizing the substance and expelling the gas into our atmosphere. The self destructive nature of our current practices IMO isn't representative of any organism. We both can agree greed is a main driving force; that doesn't mean with should be dismissive about the entire situation.

Great post, well said.
 
I have replied to your question.
You didn't reply to his question. You qouted someone else off the internet. And all the scientific studies in the world still doesn't mean it will happen that way. How will the Amazon dry up if all the ice caps and perma frost start to melt? Wouldn't that massive surge of water just rush right back up the rivers? I'm no scientist or expert at all, but my thought about the hobby impact is this. Over the years so many new people have started up this hobby, and just because you read some books does not mean you will be great or good at this hobby. I started my first reef 16 years ago, when most LFS near me had mushrooms and softies as their corals. The first acros started coming in 2 years later. I live near NYC so I believe(just my opinion not a fact) that the LFS here would have more coming in than say a midwest lfs. There were only a hand full of people trying to keep reefs at this point. So over the years you know there was a lot of lost livestock as people were still learning the basics. I'm still learning something new almost everyday. I mean I have a hippo tang that started to eat my acan. Something new. Anyways imagine all the livestock lost in shipping corals,inverts,fish etc. Imagine that over the years and years of the industry. How many peole have purple tangs? Tons of people right, but they are wild caught and come from the Red Sea. So we make a larger impact than you think. I'm just starting to ramble now and I need some sleep.
 
You didn't reply to his question. You qouted someone else off the internet.

:lol: Did you not see the two paragraphs I typed out and highlighted in bold?

And all the scientific studies in the world still doesn't mean it will happen that way. No but the odds are that it will. The overwhelming majority of scientists are in agreement.


How will the Amazon dry up if all the ice caps and perma frost start to melt?

Do a search on the internet and find out.

Wouldn't that massive surge of water just rush right back up the rivers? I'm no scientist or expert at all, but my thought about the hobby impact is this. Over the years so many new people have started up this hobby, and just because you read some books does not mean you will be great or good at this hobby. I started my first reef 16 years ago, when most LFS near me had mushrooms and softies as their corals. The first acros started coming in 2 years later. I live near NYC so I believe(just my opinion not a fact) that the LFS here would have more coming in than say a midwest lfs. There were only a hand full of people trying to keep reefs at this point. So over the years you know there was a lot of lost livestock as people were still learning the basics. I'm still learning something new almost everyday. I mean I have a hippo tang that started to eat my acan. Something new. Anyways imagine all the livestock lost in shipping corals,inverts,fish etc. Imagine that over the years and years of the industry. How many peole have purple tangs? Tons of people right, but they are wild caught and come from the Red Sea. So we make a larger impact than you think. I'm just starting to ramble now and I need some sleep.
.
 
Ross, Anyone can write BS on the internet and say it is the truth. I have read about the Amaon basin drying out, And it looks like about 10% of scientist think that is possible. Where as the other 90% say NO. And just because you put something in BOLD print does not mean it is your thought. I INVINTED GOOGLE. HAHAHAHA read more reliable sources and double check them for accuracy.
 
Actually, I am a scientist, and I judge scientific findings and literature based on scientific method. There are certain rules when it comes to science, and since we cannot all be experts on everything, even if we are scientists, we rely on adherance to proper methods.

Now as a scientist, I am a born skeptic. Curiousity is what compels scientists to do what they do, if science is the main motivating factor in entering our profession. Of course if a desire to change the world, or help people, or some other activist cause, the science becomes preconceptual, and the search is one of looking for supporting facts and dismissing all others.

Many activist climatologist, like Michael Mann, for instance have been caught trying to stack the deck by shutting out desenting opinion while using the consensus argument. This has to make one pause and wonder, with all the charts, graphs and articles someone like Rossini may wish to present, what evidence wasn't presented because it was quashed?

The earths climate is incredibly complex. "CO2 is a greenhouse gas" is not a difinitive argument. There are saturation points, natural causes, and positive and negative forcings to consider. The climate is so complex that only a super computer can crunch the numners. This causes a problem with my first point about scientific method. One step of the scientific method is violated due to the sheer complexity of the problem, that is laboratory experimentation. Sure you can do small experiments on salamanders or something, but you cannot tie that experiment to global climate change to the exclusion of all other cyclicall or natural causes. So climatologists must rely on the computer models.

Now here's the rub with the models, since 1988 the models have to be constantly updated to include forcings that weren't previoulsy known. And yet they differ from computer to computer by up to 800%. This violates another scientific method principle, that of independant verification. One computer does not verify the other.

So it is clear we do not have laboratory experimentation or independant verification, it has been recently shown that the peer review process in climatology is corrupt, so what is left. Well if the predictions of the computer models were accurate and we were able to look at observed results, we could still argue some accuracy. But what has happened, the original models claimed a 7 degree rise in temps from 1988 until now, what was the actual, well the hot year of 1997 showed a 1.6 degree rise, but by 2008 is was all given back to a 0 degree rise.

I have no political agenda so strictly from a scientific point of view, the overall hypothesis has failed to this point. Of course there is supporting evidence. Ever hypothesis is built on some supporing evidence. But overall, it failed to this point. Temperatures have dropped dispite increased CO2 showing that the AGW effect is not enough to overcome natural forces. Weather has followed cyclical patterns as predicted by meteorologists who coincidently use the same models to predict weather but 80% disagree with AGW hypothesis.

Rossini is a true believer. He fits in the mold of the 911 conspiracy theorists, the birthers and the muslim narrative. Nothing and no amount of evidence will ever change their minds. Evidence will be dimissed and those that disagree will be called stupid or assigned a hidden agenda. Free thinking will be attacked. It is more important for them to be considered right, than actually be right. It is a mindset I cannot hope to understand.

As for the original topic. As living organisms on this planet, we are going to leave a footprint. That is certain. I personally believe that it is not permanant and the reefs and mankind will survive my little indulgences with this hobby.
 
No Mmckibben, you are not. CO2 decreases pH in any fluid it mixes with, water, pop, your blood. Remember of course that many fluids have a buffering capacity. A buffer is the ability of a fluid to resist a pH change. The hypothesis that the Oceans would develope a more acidic pH while practical in theory, has not proven itself through observation. The oceans are not becoming more acidic. Also the degree of acidity that the oceans would need to become to effect sealife has not been determined. During the Cambrian explosion there was significantly more CO2 in the atmosphere and this was a time of an "explosion" of life in the oceans.
 
Actually, I am a scientist, and I judge scientific findings and literature based on scientific method. There are certain rules when it comes to science, and since we cannot all be experts on everything, even if we are scientists, we rely on adherance to proper methods.

Now as a scientist, I am a born skeptic. Curiousity is what compels scientists to do what they do, if science is the main motivating factor in entering our profession. Of course if a desire to change the world, or help people, or some other activist cause, the science becomes preconceptual, and the search is one of looking for supporting facts and dismissing all others.

Many activist climatologist, like Michael Mann, for instance have been caught trying to stack the deck by shutting out desenting opinion while using the consensus argument. This has to make one pause and wonder, with all the charts, graphs and articles someone like Rossini may wish to present, what evidence wasn't presented because it was quashed?

The earths climate is incredibly complex. "CO2 is a greenhouse gas" is not a difinitive argument. There are saturation points, natural causes, and positive and negative forcings to consider. The climate is so complex that only a super computer can crunch the numners. This causes a problem with my first point about scientific method. One step of the scientific method is violated due to the sheer complexity of the problem, that is laboratory experimentation. Sure you can do small experiments on salamanders or something, but you cannot tie that experiment to global climate change to the exclusion of all other cyclicall or natural causes. So climatologists must rely on the computer models.

Now here's the rub with the models, since 1988 the models have to be constantly updated to include forcings that weren't previoulsy known. And yet they differ from computer to computer by up to 800%. This violates another scientific method principle, that of independant verification. One computer does not verify the other.

So it is clear we do not have laboratory experimentation or independant verification, it has been recently shown that the peer review process in climatology is corrupt, so what is left. Well if the predictions of the computer models were accurate and we were able to look at observed results, we could still argue some accuracy. But what has happened, the original models claimed a 7 degree rise in temps from 1988 until now, what was the actual, well the hot year of 1997 showed a 1.6 degree rise, but by 2008 is was all given back to a 0 degree rise.

I have no political agenda so strictly from a scientific point of view, the overall hypothesis has failed to this point. Of course there is supporting evidence. Ever hypothesis is built on some supporing evidence. But overall, it failed to this point. Temperatures have dropped dispite increased CO2 showing that the AGW effect is not enough to overcome natural forces. Weather has followed cyclical patterns as predicted by meteorologists who coincidently use the same models to predict weather but 80% disagree with AGW hypothesis.

Rossini is a true believer. He fits in the mold of the 911 conspiracy theorists, the birthers and the muslim narrative. Nothing and no amount of evidence will ever change their minds. Evidence will be dimissed and those that disagree will be called stupid or assigned a hidden agenda. Free thinking will be attacked. It is more important for them to be considered right, than actually be right. It is a mindset I cannot hope to understand.

As for the original topic. As living organisms on this planet, we are going to leave a footprint. That is certain. I personally believe that it is not permanant and the reefs and mankind will survive my little indulgences with this hobby.

Might I ask where you derived the data indicating the global temperatures have decreased? The notion that the peer review process is flawed and corrupt regarding climate change is false. The climate scientists charged with misconduct have been cleared from multiple investigations.


http://www.cce-review.org/pdf/FINAL REPORT.pdf
 
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Now here's the rub with the models, since 1988 the models have to be constantly updated to include forcings that weren't previoulsy known. And yet they differ from computer to computer by up to 800%

Which explains why when I was a kid growing up in the 70's and 80's most of our science films in school were concerned with oncoming ice-age and glaciation.

The biggest difference between then and now isn't the science, but the increasingly arrogant attitude of climatologists. I thought it was the duty of other scientists to scrutinize the work of peers, but not on the issues of climate change obviously.

Oh, they neglected to tell you that advanced climate models indicate that the amount of moisture at the poles actually increases during a warming event because increased water vapor in the atmosphere causes more condensation at the poles. But, it makes good Hollywood.

Technically C02 isn't the scary gas. The million dollar question is what tipping point does sea bottom methane start to break away because unlike C02 methane is a very efficient green house antogonist.
 
Yes Andrew, I'm sure you believe what you wrote. Typically you present absolute statements like "The notion that the peer review process is flawed and corrupt regarding climate change is false." Of course you are not the arbiter of what is true and what is false. May I ask, have you examined all the information on this subject with an objective eye, or did you find something that supported your ideology and declare it to be the authority on the subject?

As far as global temps, there are two data sets on this. One is satallite data which clearly shows a cooling trend. The other is NOAA ground collection stations that show an increase. AGW advocates try to make the claim that the ground stations should be the standard. This is rediculous for a number of reasons. One being the hypothesis itself. AGW hypothesis says the solar radiation reflects off the surface of the earth and then is trapped by greenhouse gases in the statosphere. Clearly, that is where the warming should first be detected. Satellites measure that part of the earth. Second ground stations are effected by heat island effect, machinery like air conditioners, and politics. For instance, all ground reporting stations in Siberia have been shut down since the colapse of the Soviet Union. What effect do you think the ellimination of Siberian data has on the overall average? So you see, when you hear that the last 10 years are the hottest on record, you are being fed cherry picked information from an entity with an agenda. A cursory objective unbiased look will clearly show that it isn't that cut and dry. AGW may be a valid hypothesis or not, that point has not yet been established, the one clear thing we can say, is that it isn't even close to rising to the level of a theory yet.
 
Yes Andrew, I'm sure you believe what you wrote. Typically you present absolute statements like "The notion that the peer review process is flawed and corrupt regarding climate change is false." Of course you are not the arbiter of what is true and what is false.

No, that apparently is you.
 
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