All this argument over growing corals is irrelevant to the initial question.
As mentioned by others, metal halides will be around as long as commercial users have a need for them and no longer. Once they are replaced in the commercial (structure and stadium lighting) area that will be it for MH in the hobby as well. No factory is going to stay open to produce the piddling quantity required to light reef tanks.
Good thing or bad thing? Again irrelevant, we just don’t matter enough to keep a factory running.
This is totally true.. The company I work for determines which technology lives and dies since we spec what type of fixtures go on too what kind of job. We do lighting for pretty much anything, Warehouse, factories, parking lots, food processes and food storage, office, medical and retail, etc. We do it all around the country and some out of the country.
About a year ago I had said led really was not increasing much. It was used in things like exit lights and task lighting for like jewelry case displays etc...
Anyhow right after that we saw a huge surge in leds requests on jobs as alternates. Not all the jobs went led and the main reason is initial cost of a led fixture can be higher and other reasons. But the increase was because the salesman hit up the owners of these building and not just the engineers.
Now we have seen a drop in led sales again and the main reason is people hate led lighting for general purpose lighting. It is too directional and harsh and make offices look like caves..
Where we are seeing growth of leds is in freezer applications and cold weather parking lots. Mainly because they dont require any warm up like other forms of lighting like metal halide or HPS.
Another area I has grown is in life emergency again because of instant on.
Retail leans more led because most of it is task lighting or display lighting.
Lately we have been doing allot of cannibals grow facilities and I thought they would go led but they hate it too and actually prefer HPS...
Led has made some inroads on fluorescent too but not much.. Mainly the applications where we might use t-5..
Led is not going to hurt halides much.. Plasma may put MH and HPS out.. Leds are not going too period. Leds will survive plasma but in certain applications just like now.
My point really is leds are not really rising very fast and seems to come in waves and then slows down again... Leds will not kill halides but plasma might.